The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

摘要

Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT), the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 to 2005 have been analyzed through calculating surface wetness index (SWI). The results indicate that there was a prominent drying trend and an abrupt change in the analysis period. A persistent warming period with less precipitation from the mid and late 1970s to present was found, and a shift process exists from the wet to the dry in the central part of North China during 1951 —2005. The transition is located in the mid to late 1970s, which should be related to the shift variation of large-scale climate background. The correlation analysis has brought about a finding of significant correlativity between PDO index (PDOI) and SAT, precipitation and SWI in this region. The correlation exhibits that the positive phase of PDOI (warm PDO phase) matches warming, less precipitation and the drought period, and the negative PDOI phase corresponds to low SAT, more precipitation and the wet period. The duration of various phases is more than 25 years. The decadal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean is one of the possible causes in forming the decadal dry/wet trend and shift of the central part of North China.