Importance of non-CO_2 emissions in carbon management

摘要

Background: GHG budgets highlight a need for urgency, yet analyses are often CO_2-focused, with less attention paid to non-CO_2. Results: In this paper, scenarios are used to explore non-CO_2 drivers and barriers to their mitigation, drawing out implications for CO_2 management. Results suggest that even optimistic technological and consumption-related developments lead to on-going increases in global N_2O, largely to improve food security within a changing climate. This contrasts with existing analysis, where lower levels of N_2O by 2050 are projected. Conclusions: As avoiding '2℃' limits the emissions budget, constraints on reducing non-CO_2 add pressure to energy system decarbonization. Overlooking how a changing climate and rising consumption restricts efforts to curb non-CO_2 will result in policies aiming to avoid 2°C falling short of the mark.