CO2 emissions from Iran's power sector and analysis of the influencing factors using the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model

摘要

The current status of CO2 emissions from Iran's power sector and the socio-economic factors that influence these emissions are fully covered in this paper. To begin, the amount of CO2 emissions is calculated based on the IPCC guidelines for national GHG inventories. The analysis of socio-economic influencing parameters is performed by the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model using population size, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, electricity intensity and consumption of energy resources for electricity generation. Then CO2 emissions related to the electricity consumption in six sectors (residential, industrial, public, agriculture, trade and lighting) as well as grid losses and internal electricity consumption of power plants are estimated. Finally, CO2 emissions from Iran's power sector are compared with their alternatives in Turkey and China. The results indicate that CO2 emissions increased from 78.778 Tg in 2003 to 149.691 Tg in 2013, and the average CO2 specific emission factor is 571.29 g/kWh. The outputs of the STIRPAT model illustrate that population size, GDP per capita, electricity intensity and the consumption of fossil fuels for electricity generation positively influence CO2 emissions, while electricity generation by hydropower, renewable energies and nuclear energy negatively do.