CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS NO CRYSTAL BALL

摘要

Beware the fragile consumer! That, it seems, was the message of Federal Eeserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony before Congress on Feb. 28, when he warned of the need to keep a sharp eye on the recent plunge in consumer confidence. But there's much less to fear from that drop than Greenspan's remarks suggest. In fact, using confidence as an economic predictor brings to mind the quip about the economist who correctly forecast nine of the past three recessions.