Judged solely by the labor markets, it would be easy to conclude that the U. S. economy is in a recession. Ordinarily, back-to-back job losses of 357,000 in February and 108,000 in March are seen only during periods of downturn. But these are hardly ordinary times. Clearly, the runup to war and its uncertainties took a heavy toll not only on the labor markets but also on the economy generally in the first quarter. In addition to the slumping job market (chart), surveys of both industrial and service-sector activity collapsed in March, and consumer spending looked unusually shaky.
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