Don't Sweat the Sickly Employment Numbers

摘要

The employment report for December was weaker than expected, with the payroll number nearly unchanged and the household survey number falling by 50,000. Although disappointing, these results should not carry too much weight. A forecasting equation I use shows that monthly changes cannot be predicted accurately. This equation considers the history of employment and gross domestic product and recent claims for unemployment insurance. The current prediction is for a January gain of 65,000 payroll jobs. But the range could be -90,000 to +225,000.