On ‘analytical models for the patchy spread of plant disease’

摘要

Epidemiologists are interested in using models that incorporate the effects of clustering in the spatial pattern of disease on epidemic dynamics. Bolker (1999, Bull. Math. Biol. 61, 849–874) has developed an approach to study such models based on a moment closure assumption. We show that the assumption works above a thre shold initial level of disease that depends on the spatial dispersal of the pathogen. We test an alternative assumption and show that it does not have this limitation. We examine the relation between lattice and continuous-medium implementations of the approach.