COVID-19 Cements Market Shift to LEO Smallsats, yet Risks Remain

摘要

There are no known cases of COVID-19 in space, but the coronavirus outbreak will have helped to fundamentally reshape the 2020 satellite market back on Earth. In 2021, the pandemic may be remembered in part for dramatically accelerating changes in the satellite industry as it adapts to a coming wave of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) constellations that continue to shift focus from geostationary (GEO) satellites. According to several analysts, consultants and executives, COVID-19 in 2020 has cemented the paradigm shift in satellite type choice while speeding the market demand for their services. "The pandemic didn't change plans, it simply fast-tracked what was already happening," says J.P. Hemingway, CEO of SES Networks. "The future is becoming increasingly clear for those overleveraged and COVID-19-affected satcom companies that filed for bankruptcy protection in the first half of 2020," says industry expert Chris Quilty of Quilty Analytics. "Glimpses of Intelsat's future strategy are coming into focus, given its pending acquisition of Gogo's Commercial Aviation business unit," Quilty's firm states in its third-quarter reports. "Global Eagle's stalking horse credit bid has secured the asset and we expect [it] to emerge as a private, independent company in the coming months. The duel between two special situations investors (Black Diamond and Center-bridge) in Speedcast recently reached a crescendo. Finally, as we previously described, OneWeb's acquisition by a consortium of Her Majesty's Government (UK) and Bharti is pending."