Traffic and emission simulation in China based on statistical methodology

摘要

To better understand how the traffic control can affect vehicle emissions, a novel TRaffic And Vehicle Emission Linkage (TRAVEL) approach was developed based on local traffic activity and emission data. This approach consists of a two-stage mapping from general traffic information to traffic flow patterns, and then to the aggregated emission rates. 39 traffic flow patterns and corresponding emission rates for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles considering emission standards classification are generated. As a case study, vehicle activity and emissions during the Beijing Olympics were simulated and compared to BAU scenario. Approximately 42-65% of the gaseous pollutants and 24% of the particle pollutants from cars, taxies and buses were reduced. These results are validated by traffic and air quality monitoring data during the Olympics, as well as other emission inventory studies. This approach improves the ability to fast predict emission variation from traffic control measurements in several typical Chinese cities. Comments related to application of this approach with both advantages and limitations are included.