Analysis and forecasting of the particulate matter (PM) concentration levels over four major cities of China using hybrid models

摘要

The analysis and forecasting of PM concentrations play a significant role in regulatory planning on the reduction and control of PM emission and precautionary strategies. However, accurate PM forecasting, which is needed to establish an early warning system, is still a huge challenge and a critical issue. Determining how to address the accurate forecasting problem becomes an even more significant and urgent task. Based on gray correlation analysis (GCA), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Cuckoo search (CS) and Back-propagation artificial neutral networks (BPANN), this paper proposes the CS-EEMD-BPANN model for forecasting PM concentrations. Prior to establishing this model, gray correlation has been uniquely used to search for possible predictors of PM among other air pollutants (CO, NO_2, O_3 and SO_2) and meteorological environments (wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and pressure). The proposed method was investigated in four major cities of China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Lanzhou) with different characteristics of climatic, terrain and emission sources. The results of the gray correlation analysis indicate that CO, NO_2 and SO_2 are more related to PM and that the incorporation of these predictors can significantly improve the model performance predictability, suggesting the effectiveness of our developed method.