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Comparison of extended medium-range forecast skill between KMA ensemble, ocean coupled ensemble, and GloSea5

机译:KMA合奏,海洋耦合合奏和GloSea5之间的扩展中程预报技能比较

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This article describes a three way inter-comparison of forecast skill on an extended medium-range time scale using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) operational ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems (i.e., atmosphere-only global ensemble prediction system (EPSG) and ocean-atmosphere coupledEPSG) and KMA operational seasonal prediction system, the Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). The main motivation is to investigate whether the ensemble NWP system can provide advantage over the existing seasonal prediction system for the extended medium-range forecast (30 days) even with putting extra resources in extended integration or coupling with ocean with NWP system. Two types of evaluation statistics are examined: the basic verification statistics - the anomaly correlation and RMSE of 500-hPa geopotential height and 1.5-meter surface temperature for the global and East Asia area, and the other is the Real-time Multivariate Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) indices (RMM1 and RMM2) - which is used to examine the MJO prediction skill. The MJO is regarded as a main source of forecast skill in the tropics linked to the mid-latitude weather on monthly time scale. Under limited number of experiment cases, the coupled NWP extends the forecast skill of the NWP by a few more days, and thereafter such forecast skill is overtaken by that of the seasonal prediction system. At present stage, it seems there is little gain from the coupled NWP even though more resources are put into it. Considering this, the best combination of numerical product guidance for operational forecasters for an extended medium-range is extension of the forecast lead time of the current ensemble NWP (EPSG) up to 20 days and use of the seasonal prediction system (GloSea5) forecast thereafter, though there exists a matter of consistency between the two systems.
机译:本文介绍了使用韩国气象局(KMA)操作集成数值天气预报(NWP)系统(即仅大气层的全球集成预报系统)在扩展的中程时间尺度上进行的三种预测技能的相互比较以及与海洋大气耦合的EPSG)和KMA运行季节预报系统,即全球季节预报系统第5版(GloSea5)。主要动机是研究即使将额外的资源进行了扩展整合或与海洋与NWP系统耦合,集合NWP系统是否可以在扩展的中程预报(30天)方面提供优于现有季节预测系统的优势。检查了两种类型的评估统计数据:基本验证统计数据-全球和东亚地区500-hPa地势高度和1.5米表面温度的异常相关性和RMSE,另一种是实时多元Madden和Julian振荡(MJO)指标(RMM1和RMM2)-用于检查MJO预测技巧。 MJO被认为是热带地区与中纬度天气有关的每月预报技能的主要预报来源。在数量有限的实验情况下,耦合的NWP将NWP的预测技能再延长几天,之后,这种预测技能将被季节性预测系统所取代。在现阶段,尽管投入了更多的资源,但看起来似乎从耦合的NWP收效甚微。考虑到这一点,在较长的中期范围内,为操作预报员提供的数值产品指南的最佳组合是将当前整体NWP(EPSG)的预报提前期延长至20天,然后使用季节性预报系统(GloSea5)进行预报,尽管这两个系统之间存在一致性问题。

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