Probabilistic analysis of underground pipelines for optimal renewal time

摘要

In practical management of an entire water distribution system, it is very important to definenoptimal renewal time for pipelines. Reasons mainly include their deterioration, invisibility as annunderground system and the adverse impact on society in the case of leakage. Thus, this papernproposes a mathematical model to satisfy this actual need. The model is developed based onnWeibull hazard function and least life-cycle cost estimation approach. This model enables usnto determine not only the deterioration rate of pipelines but also optimal renewal time. Attentionnis further focused on finding optimal pipeline materials. Empirical study was conducted on thendataset of a pipeline system in the city of Osaka, Japan.