Assessing the impact of the demographic dividend on real estate prices: empirical evidence from China

摘要

To elucidate the impact of the demographic dividend on real estate prices, this article uses the latest Chinese provincial data over the 2002-2013 period. The panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model combined with the impulse response function (IRF) is used to investigate the direct and indirect mechanisms of the demographic dividend that cause real estate price escalation in both the short and long term. The empirical results indicate that the demographic dividend, particularly city residents' disposable income, can not only directly increase real estate prices but also indirectly increase prices through intervening channels, such as real estate loans.