Total cost of ownership, payback, and consumer preference modeling of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

摘要

Motor vehicles represent one of the widely owned assets in the US. A vehicle's ownership cost includes fixed expenses to purchase and own the vehicle and variable costs to use and operate the vehicle. Policymakers, analysts and consumers are interested in understanding the total ownership costs of various vehicle types and technologies so as to understand their relative consumer preference and valuation. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are an advanced technology vehicle that is presently in limited production, but whose relative cost of ownership is not well-defined. A few studies have attempted to calculate the costs and benefits of PHEVs but none consider the cost and benefits of PHEVs at a level of detail comparable to what has been performed for other vehicle technologies. In order to understand the costs and benefits of PHEVs purchase and use, this study constructs a comprehensive ownership cost model. The model is then used to analyze different PHEV designs within four vehicle classes. This study then performs a sensitivity analysis to understand the sensitivity of total ownership cost and payback period to model parameters and the modeled components of ownership costs. Results show that a more comprehensive PHEV ownership cost model has a lower net cost of ownership than studies to date, resulting in a shorter payback period and higher consumer preference.