Modeling and forecasting of cooling and electricity load demand

摘要

The objective of this paper is to extend a statistical approach to effectively provide look-ahead forecasts for cooling and electricity demand load. Our proposed model is a generalized form of a Cochrane-Orcutt estimation technique that combines a multiple linear regression model and a seasonal autoregressive moving average model. The proposed model is adaptive so that it updates forecast values every time that new information on cooling and electricity load is received. Therefore, the model can simultaneously take advantage of two statistical methods, time series, and linear regression in an adaptive way. The effectiveness of the proposed forecast model is shown through a use case. The example utilizes the proposed approach for economic dispatching of a combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) plant at the University of California, Irvine. The results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed forecast model.