Global zero emissions scenarios: The role of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage by forested land use

摘要

We investigate the prospects of three zero-emission scenarios for achieving the target of limiting global mean temperature rise to 2 degrees C or below, and compare them with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario involving no climate policy intervention. The "2100 zero" emissions scenario requires zero emissions after 2100 until 2150. The "350 ppm zero" emissions scenario entails zero emissions in the latter half of this century, which can be achieved by the cumulative emissions constraints of the Wigley-Richels-Edmonds (WRE) 350 from 2010 to 2150. Finally, the "net zero" scenario requires zero cumulative emissions from 2010 to 2150, allowing positive emissions over the coming several decades that would be balanced-out by negative emissions in the latter half of the century. The role of biomass energy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) with forested land is also assessed with these scenarios. The results indicate that the 2 degrees C target can be achieved in the "net zero" scenario, while the "350 ppm zero" scenario would result in a temperature rise of 2.4 degrees C. The "2100 zero" scenario achieved a 4.1 degrees C increase, while the BAU reached about 5.2 degrees C. BECCS contributed to achieving zero-emission requirements while providing a limited contribution to energy supply. The findings indicate substantial future challenges for the management of forested land. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.