Abducting Economics

摘要

The goal of empirical economics is to learn from data. But what constitutes admissible evidence? How best to learn from it? This paper addresses these fundamental questions. All analysts approach data with preconceptions. The data never speak for themselves. Sometimes preconceptions are encoded in precise models. Sometimes they are just intuitions that analysts seek to confirm and solidify. A central question is how to revise these preconceptions in the light of new evidence.