Job-to-Job Flows and Earnings Growth

摘要

We have demonstrated how to use the forthcoming earnings data associated with the US Census Bureau's Job-to-Job Flows data product to account for how earnings evolve in the US economy. This method lets us account for the role of on-the-job earnings growth, job-to-job flows, and nonemployment, and characterized some properties of the residual that the released measures do not account for. Job-stayers move the earnings level by more than the other components. Nonemployment flows have a negative effect on the earnings level, which declines in magnitude during recessions. Job-to-job flows have a more modest positive effect on earnings, because of the outsized returns to moving, which also declines during recessions. Analysis of the full set of released data will allow consideration of different industries, locations, worker demographic characteristics, and firm characteristics in the evolution of earnings in the US economy.