A BROKEN CLOCK IS SPOT ON TWICE A DAY; AN INACCURATE ONE IS NEVER RIGHT. IS THERE A VALUE TO FORECASTING?

摘要

Long-term forecasting is still useful even when there are so many unpredictable events, writes Adam Pilarski, senior vice-president, Avitas, in his monthly column.rnThe saying in the title has some profound wisdom in it. Wrong forecasts can lead us astray, while doing nothing about trying to guess the future may prove to be the correct course of action. This was reiterated by what I call the BS (for Black Swan) theory, which claims that the future is shaped by some totally unpredictable events. These events by definition are unpredictable but have a huge impact on life.