Airbus Investigates Replacement for A320neo & A350 Re-engining: Residuals Need to Reflect Changing Product Line in Long Term

摘要

Residual value projections rarely assume that the status quo will be maintained over a 15-25 time horizon and as such market based forecasts will expect that current models will be upgraded and indeed, replaced. Market based forecasts are constantly anticipating the timing and efficiency improvement of new aircraft types and improvements to existing models which contrasts with abstract base value projections that produce smooth future value curves but which do not seemingly account for supply and demand nor the timing and magnitude of new models. Residual values are regularly seeking to reflect market conditions in 15-20 years time and as such the factors that will be impacting the market in the 2030s will not be the same as those being experienced today. Examining the market conditions of the late 1990s versus today clearly illustrates how the market can change. The fleet in 1999 comprised some 15,000 jet aircraft compared to the 29,000 of today-nearly doubling. In 1999 there still some 1,400 B727s in service versus the 200 today. The product line of Boeing had only just moved to the B737NG and the B737 Classic was still in production; the B777-200ER was the principal Boeing widebody and the demand for the B747-400 and B767 was still strong. For Airbus the A300, A310 and A340 were the principal Airbus widebodies with the A330-200 only having just entered service. Within the last ten years, the product lines of both Airbus and Boeing have undergone a seismic shift. Virtually all aircraft models have either been replaced or undergone a major upgrade in terms of size and or powerplant.