Change or die

摘要

At the start of 2002 one aircraft trader confidently predicted that it was going to be a great year. "I have been waiting for conditions like this for 10 years," he said. "This market is perfect for traders." He was wrong. Three years later he is still waiting. Despite the collapse of airlines such as Ansett and Swissair, and US Chapter 11 filings, there is very little trading going on. As John Morrissey of Blackstream Aviation says, the market is constipated. The problem is aircraft values. There are plenty of aircraft owners that are keen to sell and there are literally hundreds of potential buyers out there - but they cannot agree on price. During the upturn many airlines, leasing companies and banks overvalued the aircraft on their books. They were encouraged to do this by manufacturers, certain appraisers and airlines which wanted extra cash from deals.