Evolutionary computation-based approach for model error correction and calibration

摘要

Calibration is typically used for improving the predictability of mechanistic simulation models by adjusting a set of model parameters and fitting model predictions to observations. Calibration does not, however, account for or correct potential misspecifications in the model structure, limiting the accuracy of modeled predictions. This paper presents a new approach that addresses both parameter error and model structural error to improve the predictive capabilities of a model. The new approach simultaneously conducts a numeric search for model parameter estimation and a symbolic (regression) search to determine a function to correct misspecifications in model equations. It is based on an evolutionary computation approach that integrates genetic algorithm and genetic programming operators. While this new approach is designed generically and can be applied to a broad array of mechanistic models, it is demonstrated for an illustrative case study involving water quality modeling and prediction. Results based on extensive testing and evaluation, show that the new procedure performs consistently well in fitting a set of training data as well as predicting a set of validation data, and outperforms a calibration procedure and an empirical model fitting procedure.