An Application of the Adjoint Method to a Statistical-Dynamical Tropical-Cyclone Prediction Model (SD-90) Ⅱ: Real Tropical Cyclone Cases

摘要

In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone (TC) tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of TC tracks was made with good accuracy for tracks containing no sharp turns. In the present paper, the cases of real TC tracks are studied. Due to the complexity of TC motion, attention is paid to the diagnostic research of TC motion. First, five TC tracks are studied. Using the data of each entire TC track, by the adjoint method, five TC tracks are fitted well, and the forces acting on the TCs are retrieved. For a given TC, the distribution of the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force well matches the corresponding TC track, i.e., when a TC turns, the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force acts as a centripetal force, which means that the TC indeed moves like a particle; in particular, for TC 9911, the clockwise looping motion is also fitted well. And the distribution of the resultant appears to be periodic in some cases. Then, the present method is carried out for a portion of the track data for TC 9804, which indicates that when the amount of data for a TC track is sufficient, the algorithm is stable. And finally, the same algorithm is implemented for TCs with a double-eyewall structure, namely Bilis (2000) and Winnie (1997), and the results prove the applicability of the algorithm to TCs with complicated mesoscale structures if the TC track data are obtained every three hours.