確率計画による石油・天然ガス備蓄を利用したエネルギー安全保障向上施策の経済合理性の評価

摘要

This study shows a mathematical method for evaluation on economic rational ity of energy security improvement measure using crude oil and LNG stockpile. Earthquake on March 11 2011 has caused massive shutdown of nuclear power reactors and sharp increase of LNG demand one of which has been imported from Middle East where geopolitical stability has been shaken recently, making Japanese energy security condition worse. The authors assume LNG stockpile in addition to existed crude oil stockpile as energy security improvement measure. With stochastic dynamic programming, the authors propose the optimal stockpi le operation and the optimal stockpile capacity under uncertainties such as price volatility of energy resources and quantitative disruption of energy supply. In this paper, the authors firstly explain the mathematical method to evaluate Japanese energy security strategy. Then the authors show results got from calculation, discussing Japanese energy secur ity policy by the optimal stockpile operation and the optimal stockpile capacity.%東日本大震災並びに福島第一原子力発電事故は，わが国のエネルギーシステムに大きな影響を与えている．原子力発電所は相次いで運転停止状態となり，国内原子炉全停止が現実のものとなり得る状況である．そのため，原子力発電による電力供給量の減少分を補うための火力発電用液化天然ガス（LNG）の需要が高まっている．