地域特性を考慮したMARKALモデルによる北海道の将来のエネルギーシステム構成解析

摘要

We investigated the effect of the CO_2 emission reduction target on the energy system structure of Hokkaido. For the purpose, the Hokkaido MARKAL Model, which reflects the regional characteristics of Hokkaido such as long winter and high energy use in the residential sector is developed. Employing this model, Hokkaido's long-term energy outlook is evaluated under the scenario on carbon regulation. Under the scenario reducing CO_2 emission of 2050 by 50% from that of 2010, total energy supply decreases by 10% in 2030 and 7% in 2050 compared to the scenario on no carbon regulation. For primary energy mix, the share of coal alternates to that of renewable energy as represented by wind power. The use of renewable energy heightens the self-sufficiency in energy supply of Hokkaido, from 23% in no carbon regulation scenario to 53% in carbon regulation scenario.%エネルギー問題，地球温暖化問題の対策を検討するためには，全体的?長期的な視点で効果的な政策?導入技術に関する指針を得ることが重要であると共に，地域自治体レベルで個々の地域特性を反映した対策をとることが必要となる．特に北海道は，冷涼な気候，豊富な再生可能エネルギー，一次産業が多いことなど，独自のエネルギーシステムで構成されている．