ボトムアップモデルによる2050年までの対策を考慮する中長期省エネ·温暖化対策シナリオの検討

摘要

気候変動の悪影響を最小化する温暖化対策·温室効果ガス排出削減が求められている.日本においても削減対策は多様で，各部門に削減可能性がある.その全容を共有し，広く対策の選択を議論することが求められる.これまで日本の温暖化対策研究で，エネルギー転換·産業部門の対策強化を検討した分析,原発縮小·廃止と温室効果ガス排出削減の両方を検討する分析も報告されてきた.%In this research, energy consumption and its CO_2 emissions are estimated until 2020, 2030, and 2050, and the effect of energy conservation measures, introduction of renewable energy, to low carbon fossil fuel, and other measures are estimated by bottom-up model. It is also estimated the effect of many kinds of energy conservation measures not only introduction of high efficiency equipment, but also high efficiency energy system and better energy management. Emission reduction potentials are estimated for energy industry, and industry sector as well as commercial, residential and transport sector. The result shows there is big potential of CO_2 emission reductions in Japan, such as 25% reduction in 2020, 65% reduction in 2030, 85% reduction in 2050.