Measuring the effectiveness of management interventions at regional scales by integrating ecological monitoring and modelling

摘要

BACKGROUNDBecause of site‐specific effects and outcomes, it is often difficult to know whether a management strategy for the control of pests has worked or not. Population dynamics of pests are typically spatially and temporally variable. Moreover, interventions at the scale of individual fields or farms are essentially unreplicated experiments; a decrease in a target population following management cannot safely be interpreted as success because, for example, it might simply be a poor year for that species. Here, we argue that if large‐scale data are available, population models can be used to measure outcomes against the prevailing mean and variance. We apply this approach to the problem of rotational management of the weed Alopecurus myosuroides.