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Neural network approach to reference evapotranspiration modeling from limited climatic data in arid regions

机译:神经网络方法从干旱地区有限的气候数据参考蒸散量建模

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摘要

In order to better manage the limited water resources in arid regions, accurate determination of plant water requirements is necessary. For that, the evaluation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0)—a basic component of the hydrological cycle—is essential. In this context, the Penman Monteith equation, known for its accuracy, requires a high number of climatic parameters that are not always fully available from most meteorological stations. Our study examines the effectiveness of the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) for the evaluation of ET0 using incomplete meteorological parameters. These neural networks use daily climatic data (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and the insolation duration) as inputs, and ET0 values estimated by the Penman-Monteith formula as outputs. The results show that the proper choice of neural network architecture allows not only error minimization but also maximizes the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. In fact, with a network of two hidden layers and eight neurons per layer, we obtained, during the test phase, values of 1, 1 and 0.01 for the determination coefficient, the criterion of Nash and the mean square error, respectively. Comparing results between multiple linear regression and the neural method revealed the good modeling quality and high performance of the latter, due to the possibility of improving performance criteria. In this work, we considered correlations between input variables that improve the accuracy of the model and do not pose problems of multi-collinearity. Furthermore, we succeeded in avoiding overfitting and could generalize the model for other similar areas.
机译:为了更好地管理干旱地区有限的水资源,必须准确确定植物的需水量。为此,对参考蒸散量(ET0)(水文循环的基本组成部分)的评估至关重要。在这种情况下,以其准确性着称的彭曼·蒙特斯方程需要大量的气候参数,而这些气象参数并不总是可以从大多数气象站获得的。我们的研究检查了使用人工神经网络(ANN)使用不完整的气象参数评估ET0的有效性。这些神经网络使用每日气候数据(温度,相对湿度,风速和日照持续时间)作为输入,并使用Penman-Monteith公式估算的ET0值作为输出。结果表明,正确选择神经网络体系结构不仅可以使错误最小化,而且可以使因变量和自变量之间的关系最大化。实际上,通过一个由两个隐藏层和每个层八个神经元组成的网络,在测试阶段,我们分别获得了确定系数,纳什准则和均方误差的值分别为1、1和0.01。多元线性回归与神经方法之间的比较结果表明,由于可以改进性能标准,因此该方法具有良好的建模质量和高性能。在这项工作中,我们考虑了输入变量之间的相关性,这些相关性可以提高模型的准确性,并且不会造成多重共线性问题。此外,我们成功避免了过度拟合,并且可以将模型推广到其他类似领域。

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