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Estimating uncertainty and reliability of social network data using Bayesian inference

机译:使用贝叶斯推断估计社交网络数据的不确定性和可靠性

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摘要

Social network analysis provides a useful lens through which to view the structure of animal societies, and as a result its use is increasingly widespread. One challenge that many studies of animal social networks face is dealing with limited sample sizes, which introduces the potential for a high level of uncertainty in estimating the rates of association or interaction between individuals. We present a method based on Bayesian inference to incorporate uncertainty into network analyses. We test the reliability of this method at capturing both local and global properties of simulated networks, and compare it to a recently suggested method based on bootstrapping. Our results suggest that Bayesian inference can provide useful information about the underlying certainty in an observed network. When networks are well sampled, observed networks approach the real underlying social structure. However, when sampling is sparse, Bayesian inferred networks can provide realistic uncertainty estimates around edge weights. We also suggest a potential method for estimating the reliability of an observed network given the amount of sampling performed. This paper highlights how relatively simple procedures can be used to estimate uncertainty and reliability in studies using animal social network analysis.
机译:社交网络分析提供了一个有用的视角,通过它可以查看动物社会的结构,因此,其用途日益广泛。许多动物社交网络研究面临的挑战是处理有限的样本量,这在估计个体之间的关联或互动率时引入了高度不确定性的可能性。我们提出一种基于贝叶斯推断的方法,将不确定性纳入网络分析中。我们在捕获模拟网络的本地和全局属性时测试了该方法的可靠性,并将其与最近基于自举的建议方法进行了比较。我们的结果表明,贝叶斯推断可以提供有关观察网络中潜在确定性的有用信息。如果对网络进行了很好的采样,则观察到的网络将接近真实的底层社会结构。但是,当采样稀疏时,贝叶斯推断网络可以围绕边缘权重提供现实的不确定性估计。考虑到执行的采样量,我们还建议了一种潜在方法来估计观察到的网络的可靠性。本文重点介绍了如何使用相对简单的程序来评估使用动物社交网络分析进行的研究的不确定性和可靠性。

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