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Spatial and temporal analysis of dengue infections in Queensland, Australia: Recent trend and perspectives

机译:澳大利亚昆士兰州的登革热感染的时空分析:最新趋势和观点

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摘要

Dengue is a public health concern in northern Queensland, Australia. This study aimed to explore spatial and temporal characteristics of dengue cases in Queensland, and to identify high-risk areas after a 2009 dengue outbreak at fine spatial scale and thereby help in planning resource allocation for dengue control measures. Notifications of dengue cases for Queensland at Statistical Local Area (SLA) level were obtained from Queensland Health for the period 2010 to 2015. Spatial and temporal analysis was performed, including plotting of seasonal distribution and decomposition of cases, using regression models and creating choropleth maps of cumulative incidence. Both the space-time scan statistic (SaTScan) and Geographical Information System (GIS) were used to identify and visualise the space-time clusters of dengue cases at SLA level. A total of 1,773 dengue cases with 632 (35.65%) autochthonous cases and 1,141 (64.35%) overseas acquired cases were satisfied for the analysis in Queensland during the study period. Both autochthonous and overseas acquired cases occurred more frequently in autumn and showed a geographically expanding trend over the study period. The most likely cluster of autochthonous cases (Relative Risk, RR = 54.52, p<0.001) contained 50 SLAs in the north-east region of the state around Cairns occurred during 2013–2015. A cluster of overseas cases (RR of 60.81, p<0.001) occurred in a suburb of Brisbane during 2012 to 2013. These results show a clear spatiotemporal trend of recent dengue cases in Queensland, providing evidence in directing future investigations on risk factors of this disease and effective interventions in the high-risk areas.
机译:登革热是澳大利亚昆士兰州北部的公共卫生问题。这项研究旨在探讨昆士兰州登革热病例的时空特征,并确定2009年登革热爆发后在高空间尺度上的高风险地区,从而帮助规划用于登革热控制措施的资源分配。从昆士兰卫生部获得2010年至2015年期间昆士兰州统计局部地区(SLA)登革热病例的通知。进行了时空分析,包括绘制季节分布图和病例分解图,使用回归模型和创建choropleth图累积发生率。时空扫描统计数据(SaTScan)和地理信息系统(GIS)均用于在SLA级别识别和可视化登革热病例的时空集群。在研究期间,昆士兰州共满足1773例登革热病例,其中632例(35.65%)本土病例和1141例(64.35%)海外获得病例得到分析。在秋季,本地和海外获得性病例均较频繁发生,并且在研究期间显示出地理上的扩展趋势。 2013-2015年间,凯恩斯州东北部地区最有可能发生的自发病例群(相对风险,RR = 54.52,p <0.001)包含50个SLA。 2012年至2013年,布里斯班郊区发生了一系列海外案件(RR为60.81,p <0.001)。这些结果表明昆士兰州最近的登革热病例呈明显的时空趋势,为指导今后对该病危险因素的调查提供了证据。疾病和高风险地区的有效干预措施。

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