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Between Order and Disorder: A ‘Weak Law’ on Recent Electoral Behavior among Urban Voters?

机译:在秩序与混乱之间:关于城市选民最近选举行为的“弱法”?

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摘要

A new viewpoint on electoral involvement is proposed from the study of the statistics of the proportions of abstentionists, blank and null, and votes according to list of choices, in a large number of national elections in different countries. Considering 11 countries without compulsory voting (Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Spain, and Switzerland), a stylized fact emerges for the most populated cities when one computes the entropy associated to the three ratios, which we call the entropy of civic involvement of the electorate. The distribution of this entropy (over all elections and countries) appears to be sharply peaked near a common value. This almost common value is typically shared since the 1970s by electorates of the most populated municipalities, and this despite the wide disparities between voting systems and types of elections. Performing different statistical analyses, we notably show that this stylized fact reveals particular correlations between the blank/null votes and abstentionists ratios. We suggest that the existence of this hidden regularity, which we propose to coin as a ‘weak law on recent electoral behavior among urban voters’, reveals an emerging collective behavioral norm characteristic of urban citizen voting behavior in modern democracies. Analyzing exceptions to the rule provides insights into the conditions under which this normative behavior can be expected to occur.
机译:通过对不同国家的大量全国选举中弃权主义者,空白议员和无效议员以及按选择名单投票的统计数字的研究,提出了一种关于选举参与的新观点。考虑11个未经强制投票的国家(奥地利,加拿大,捷克共和国,法国,德国,意大利,墨西哥,波兰,罗马尼亚,西班牙和瑞士),当一个城市计算与这三个国家相关的熵时,就会出现一个典型的事实,即人口稠密的城市比率,我们称为选民公民参与的熵。这种熵的分布(在所有选举和国家中)似乎在一个共同值附近急剧上升。自1970年代以来,人口稠密的市政当局的选民通常都具有这种几乎共同的价值,尽管投票系统和选举类型之间存在巨大差异,但这仍然是普遍的。通过执行不同的统计分析,我们特别表明,这种风格化的事实揭示了空白票/零票与弃权人比率之间的特定相关性。我们认为,这种隐蔽的规律性的存在是我们提出的“关于城市选民近期选举行为的弱法律”,旨在揭示现代民主国家中城市公民投票行为的新兴集体行为规范特征。分析规则的例外情况,可以洞悉可以预期发生这种规范行为的条件。

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