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Spatio-Temporal Evolution Analysis of Drought Based on Cloud Transformation Algorithm over Northern Anhui Province

机译:基于云变换算法在北安徽省云变换算法的时空演变分析

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摘要

Drought is one of the most typical and serious natural disasters, which occurs frequently in most of mainland China, and it is crucial to explore the evolution characteristics of drought for developing effective schemes and strategies of drought disaster risk management. Based on the application of Cloud theory in the drought evolution research field, the cloud transformation algorithm, and the conception zooming coupling model was proposed to re-fit the distribution pattern of SPI instead of the Pearson-III distribution. Then the spatio-temporal evolution features of drought were further summarized utilizing the cloud characteristics, average, entropy, and hyper-entropy. Lastly, the application results in Northern Anhui province revealed that the drought condition was the most serious during the period from 1957 to 1970 with the SPI12 index in 49 months being less than −0.5 and 12 months with an extreme drought level. The overall drought intensity varied with the highest certainty level but lowest stability level in winter, but this was opposite in the summer. Moreover, drought hazard would be more significantly intensified along the elevation of latitude in Northern Anhui province. The overall drought hazard in Suzhou and Huaibei were the most serious, which is followed by Bozhou, Bengbu, and Fuyang. Drought intensity in Huainan was the lightest. The exploration results of drought evolution analysis were reasonable and reliable, which would supply an effective decision-making basis for establishing drought risk management strategies.
机译:干旱是最典型和最严重的自然灾害之一,在中国大陆大多数频繁发生,这对探索干旱的进化特征至关重要,以发展干旱灾害风险管理的有效计划和策略。基于云理论在干旱演化研究领域的应用,提出了云变换算法和概念缩放耦合模型,重新安装SPI的分布模式而不是Pearson-III分布。然后利用云特征,平均,熵和超熵进一步总结干旱的时空进化特征。最后,北安徽省北部的申请结果显示,在1957年至1970年期间,干旱状况最严重,SPI12指数在49个月内少于-0.5和12个月,具有极端干旱水平。整体干旱强度随着最高的确定性水平而变化,但冬季最低的稳定性水平,但这在夏季相反。此外,沿着安徽北部的纬度高度,干旱危害将更加大幅加大。苏州和淮北的整体干旱危害是最严重的,其次是博州,蚌埠和阜阳。淮南的干旱强度是最轻的。干旱演化分析的勘探结果是合理可靠的,这将为建立干旱风险管理战略提供有效的决策基础。

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