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Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures

机译:人民币与亚太在岸和离岸美元期货之间的波动传递

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摘要

This paper uses multivariate GARCH techniques to study volatility spillovers between the Chinese non-deliverable forward market and seven of its Asia-Pacific counterparts over the period January 1998 to March 2005. To account for the time-variability of conditional correlation, a dynamic correlation structure is included in the volatility model specification. The empirical results demonstrate that the renminbi non-deliverable forward (NDF) has been a driver of various Asian currency markets but that such co-movements exhibit a substantial degree of heterogeneity. As to the determinants of the magnitude of these co-movements, we test the relevance of potential factors and find that it is the degree of real and financial integration, in particular, that exerts the largest influence on volatility transmission.
机译:本文使用多元GARCH技术研究了1998年1月至2005年3月期间中国不可交割的远期市场与其七个亚太市场之间的波动溢出。为解决条件相关性的时变性,采用了动态相关性结构包含在波动率模型规范中。实证结果表明,人民币不可交割远期汇率(NDF)一直是各种亚洲货币市场的驱动力,但这种共同走势表现出很大程度的异质性。关于这些共同变动幅度的决定因素,我们检验了潜在因素的相关性,并发现,尤其是实际和金融一体化程度,对波动率传递的影响最大。

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