Surprise is a Neglected Aspect of Emerging Infectious Disease

摘要

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are new, their causes are not visible, risks are not equitable, and they are often out of the control of the risk perceiver (Bond and Nolan ). Their potential for economic harm or high rates of mortality and morbidity have been the motivators for response. But, the fact that we cannot predict with reasonable precision when and where they will occur, whether they will be mild or devastating, or which etiologies will be involved, elevates EIDs to a special level of concern. EIDs have caught us by surprise even though the drivers of emergence are broadly known (Wolfe et al. ; Jones et al. ) and there are sophisticated EID surveillance systems. Surprises reduce our trust in the knowledge and people upon whom we rely to protect us (Howard ). The ever-present but surprising threat of EIDs leaves us feeling disempowered and vulnerable. Our response should, therefore, address surprise.