首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Canadian Journal of Public Health = Revue Canadienne de Sant e ́ Publique >Mathematical Models of Disease Transmission: A Precious Tool for the Study of Sexually Transmitted Diseases
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Mathematical Models of Disease Transmission: A Precious Tool for the Study of Sexually Transmitted Diseases

机译:疾病传播的数学模型:研究性传播疾病的宝贵工具

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摘要

This paper is an introduction to the mathematical epidemiology of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and its application to public health. After a brief introduction to transmission dynamics models, the construction of a deterministic compartmental mathematical model of HIV transmission in a population is described. As a background to STD transmission dynamics, basic reproductive rate, inter-group mixing, rate of partner change, and duration of infectivity are discussed. Use of the models illustrates the effect of sexual mixing (proportionate to highly assortative), of preventive intervention campaigns, and of HIV-chlamydia interaction on HIV prevalence in the different population groups. In particular, planned prevention campaigns can benefit the targeted intervention group but surprisingly can be disadvantageous for the general population. Through examples, mathematical models are shown to be helpful in our understanding of disease transmission, in interpretation of observed trends, in planning of prevention strategies, and in guiding data collection.
机译:本文介绍性传播疾病(STD)的数学流行病学及其在公共卫生中的应用。在简要介绍了传播动力学模型之后,描述了在人群中传播HIV的确定性区室数学模型。作为性病传播动力学的背景,讨论了基本生殖率,群体间混合,伴侣变化率和传染持续时间。该模型的使用说明了性混合(与高度分类成比例),预防性干预活动以及艾滋病毒/衣原体相互作用对不同人群中艾滋病毒流行的影响。特别是,有计划的预防运动可以使有针对性的干预组受益,但出乎意料的是,这可能对一般人群不利。通过示例,数学模型显示出对我们了解疾病传播,解释观察到的趋势,规划预防策略以及指导数据收集有帮助。

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