Beyond statistical inference: A decision theory for science

摘要

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests—which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude—as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic utility functions credit both replicability and effect size, integrating them for a single index of merit. The analysis incorporates opportunity cost and is consistent with alternate measures of effect size, such as r² and information transmission, and with Bayesian model selection criteria. An alternate formulation is functionally equivalent to the formal theory, transparent, and easy to compute.