Multidimensional Life Table Analysis of the Effect of Child Mortality on the Total Fertility Rate in India

摘要

This paper develops a new method for estimating the effect of child mortality on the total fertility rate (TFR). The method is based on discrete-time survival models of parity progression that enable construction of a multivariate multidimensional life table of fertility, the four dimensions of which are woman’s age, parity, duration in parity, and number of previous child deaths. Additional socioeconomic variables are included in the set of predictor variables in the underlying survival models of parity progression. The life table, which is multivariate, yields a replacement rate, which measures the effect of one additional child death on the TFR. The method is illustrated by applying it to three Indian National Family Health Surveys. Major findings are that dead children are incompletely replaced, and that the replacement rate rises as the total fertility rate falls, reflecting women’s increasing ability to control their fertility.