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How Does the Past of a Soccer Match Influence Its Future? Concepts and Statistical Analysis

机译:如何做一个足球比赛的过去影响其未来?概念和统计分析

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Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals follows from independent rate processes of both teams. This would imply simple Poissonian and Markovian behavior. Deviations from this behavior would imply that the previous course of the match has an impact on the present match behavior. Here a general framework for the identification of deviations from this behavior is presented. For this endeavor it is essential to formulate an a priori estimate of the expected number of goals per team in a specific match. This can be done based on our previous work on the estimation of team strengths. Furthermore, the well-known general increase of the number of the goals in the course of a soccer match has to be removed by appropriate normalization. In general, three different types of deviations from a simple rate process can exist. First, the goal rate may depend on the exact time of the previous goals. Second, it may be influenced by the time passed since the previous goal and, third, it may reflect the present score. We show that the Poissonian scenario is fulfilled quite well for the German Bundesliga. However, a detailed analysis reveals significant deviations for the second and third aspect. Dramatic effects are observed if the away team leads by one or two goals in the final part of the match. This analysis allows one to identify generic features about soccer matches and to learn about the hidden complexities behind scoring goals. Among others the reason for the fact that the number of draws is larger than statistically expected can be identified.
机译:足球比赛中的进球目标可以解释为随机过程。在对足球比赛的最简单描述中,假设得分目标来自两支球队的独立费率过程。这意味着简单的泊松和马尔可夫行为。与这种行为的偏离将暗示比赛的前一进程会影响当前的比赛行为。这里提出了识别这种行为偏差的通用框架。为此,必须对特定比赛中每支球队的预期进球数进行事前估算。这可以根据我们之前关于团队实力估算的工作来完成。此外,必须通过适当的归一化来消除足球比赛过程中众所周知的球门数量的普遍增加。通常,可以存在三种与简单费率过程不同的偏差。首先,目标率可能取决于先前目标的确切时间。第二,它可能受到自上一个目标以来所经过时间的影响,第三,它可能反映当前得分。我们表明,德国德甲的Poissonian方案可以很好地实现。但是,详细的分析显示第二和第三方面存在明显的偏差。如果客队在比赛的最后部分领先一两个进球,则将产生戏剧性效果。通过这种分析,您可以识别有关足球比赛的一般特征,并了解得分目标背后隐藏的复杂性。除其他原因外,可以确定抽奖次数大于统计预期的原因。

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    Andreas Heuer; Oliver Rubner;

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  • 年(卷),期 -1(7),11
  • 年度 -1
  • 页码 e47678
  • 总页数 7
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