Three large-scale changes to the Medicare program could curb its costs but also reduce enrollment

摘要

Medicare spending accounts for a substantial fraction of Federal spending, and significant program changes may be necessary for long-run fiscal balance. We used a microsimulation approach to estimate how benefit changes to Medicare–including Part A, for hospital care, premiums, premium support credits, and changing the eligibility age–affect long-term Medicare spending and enrollment. All policies considered reduce spending, with reductions ranging from 2.4 to 24 percent between 2012 and 2036. However, the policies also reduce coverage among the elderly. To achieve significant costs savings without causing substantial uninsurance among seniors, benefits changes would likely need to occur in combination with other options.