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Large sample randomization inference of causal effects in the presence of interference

机译:存在干扰时因果效应的大样本随机推论

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摘要

Recently, increasing attention has focused on making causal inference when interference is possible. In the presence of interference, treatment may have several types of effects. In this paper, we consider inference about such effects when the population consists of groups of individuals where interference is possible within groups but not between groups. A two stage randomization design is assumed where in the first stage groups are randomized to different treatment allocation strategies and in the second stage individuals are randomized to treatment or control conditional on the strategy assigned to their group in the first stage. For this design, the asymptotic distributions of estimators of the causal effects are derived when either the number of individuals per group or the number of groups grows large. Under certain homogeneity assumptions, the asymptotic distributions provide justification for Wald-type confidence intervals (CIs) and tests. Empirical results demonstrate the Wald CIs have good coverage in finite samples and are narrower than CIs based on either the Chebyshev or Hoeffding inequalities provided the number of groups is not too small. The methods are illustrated by two examples which consider the effects of cholera vaccination and an intervention to encourage voting.
机译:最近,越来越多的注意力集中在当可能发生干扰时进行因果推断。在存在干扰的情况下,治疗可能会产生多种影响。在本文中,我们考虑当人口由个体组成的情况下的此类影响的推论,这些个体可能在群体内部发生干扰,而在群体之间则没有可能。假设采用两阶段随机设计,其中在第一阶段将组随机分配给不同的治疗分配策略,在第二阶段将个体随机分配到根据第一阶段分配给其组的策略进行治疗或控制的条件。对于此设计,当每组中的个体数量或组的数量变大时,就可以得出因果效应估计量的渐近分布。在某些同质性假设下,渐近分布为Wald型置信区间(CI)和检验提供了证明。实证结果表明,Wald CIs在有限样本中具有良好的覆盖范围,并且比基于Chebyshev或Hoeffding不等式的CI窄,前提是组的数量不要太小。通过两个例子说明了霍乱疫苗接种的效果以及鼓励投票的干预措施,说明了这些方法。

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