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Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on the Aboveground Carbon Sequestration Rate of a Temperate Forest in Northeastern China

机译:气候变化对东北温带森林地上碳固存率的影响预测

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摘要

The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species.
机译:地上碳固存率(ACSR)反映了气候变化对森林动态的影响。为了揭示气候变化对森林演替和碳固存的长期影响,使用森林景观演替和扰动模型(LANDIS Pro7.0)在中国东北的群落和物种水平上模拟了温带森林的ACSR。根据当前和预测的气候数据。在群落水平上,红松阔叶混交林和落叶松阔叶混交林的全程响应在整个模拟过程中都发生了波动,而在模拟过渡期中,云杉杉木林和白杨白桦林的ACSR则出现了大幅下降。在物种层面上,除红松外,所有针叶树的ACSR均在2070年代大幅下降。小兴安岭地区主要硬木的ACSR波动幅度较大,例如满洲灰,阿穆尔软木,黑榆和罗纹桦木。先锋物种在2080年代经历了急剧下降,最终在模拟中消失了。在模拟的最后一个季度中,主要在混合的红松阔叶林,所有针叶树和少数硬木中发现了不同气候下的ACSR差异。这些结果表明,气候变暖会影响小兴安岭地区的ACSR,并且在A2情景中通常会产生最大的影响。针叶树种的ACSR受气候变化的影响要大于落叶树种。

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