Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries

摘要

We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works in a wide variety of data quality contexts. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates and net international migration flows from fragmentary data while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction takes initial bias reduced estimates of standard demographic quantities. We reconstruct the female populations of Laos, a country with little vital registration data where population estimation depends largely on surveys, Sri Lanka, a country with some vital registration data, and New Zealand, a country with a highly developed statistical system and high-quality vital registration data. In addition, we extend the method to countries without censuses at regular intervals. We also use it to assess the consistency between model life tables and available census data, and hence to compare different model life table systems.