A largely unsolved problem in chemoinformatics is the issue of how calculated compound similarity relates to activity similarity, which is central to many applications. In general, activity relationships are predicted from calculated similarity values. However, there is no solid scientific foundation to bridge between calculated molecular and observed activity similarity. Accordingly, the success rate of identifying new active compounds by similarity searching is limited. Although various attempts have been made to establish relationships between calculated fingerprint similarity values and biological activities, none of these has yielded generally applicable rules for similarity searching. In this study, we have addressed the question of molecular versus activity similarity in a more fundamental way. First, we have evaluated if activity-relevant similarity value ranges could in principle be identified for standard fingerprints and distinguished from similarity resulting from random compound comparisons. Then, we have analyzed if activity-relevant similarity values could be used to guide typical similarity search calculations aiming to identify active compounds in databases. It was found that activity-relevant similarity values can be identified as a characteristic feature of fingerprints. However, it was also shown that such values cannot be reliably used as thresholds for practical similarity search calculations. In addition, the analysis presented herein helped to rationalize differences in fingerprint search performance.
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