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Robust Inference from Conditional Logistic Regression Applied to Movement and Habitat Selection Analysis

机译:来自条件逻辑回归的稳健推断应用于运动和生境选择分析

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摘要

Conditional logistic regression (CLR) is widely used to analyze habitat selection and movement of animals when resource availability changes over space and time. Observations used for these analyses are typically autocorrelated, which biases model-based variance estimation of CLR parameters. This bias can be corrected using generalized estimating equations (GEE), an approach that requires partitioning the data into independent clusters. Here we establish the link between clustering rules in GEE and their effectiveness to remove statistical biases in variance estimation of CLR parameters.The current lack of guidelines is such that broad variation in clustering rules can be found among studies (e.g., 14–450 clusters) with unknown consequences on the robustness of statistical inference. We simulated datasets reflecting conditions typical of field studies. Longitudinal data were generated based on several parameters of habitat selection with varying strength of autocorrelation and some individuals having more observations than others. We then evaluated how changing the number of clusters impacted the effectiveness of variance estimators. Simulations revealed that 30 clusters were sufficient to get unbiased and relatively precise estimates of variance of parameter estimates. The use of destructive sampling to increase the number of independent clusters was successful at removing statistical bias, but only when observations were temporally autocorrelated and the strength of inter-individual heterogeneity was weak. GEE also provided robust estimates of variance for different magnitudes of unbalanced datasets. Our simulations demonstrate that GEE should be estimated by assigning each individual to a cluster when at least 30 animals are followed, or by using destructive sampling for studies with fewer individuals having intermediate level of behavioural plasticity in selection and temporally autocorrelated observations. The simulations provide valuable information to build reliable habitat selection and movement models that allow for robustness of statistical inference without removing excessive amounts of ecological information.
机译:当资源可用性随时间和空间变化时,条件逻辑回归(CLR)被广泛用于分析动物的栖息地选择和活动。用于这些分析的观察值通常是自相关的,这会使CLR参数的基于模型的方差估计产生偏差。可以使用广义估计方程(GEE)纠正此偏差,该方法需要将数据划分为独立的群集。在这里,我们建立了GEE中的聚类规则与其消除CLR参数方差估计中的统计偏差的有效性之间的联系。当前缺乏指导原则,因此在研究之间可以发现聚类规则的广泛差异(例如14-450个聚类)对统计推断的鲁棒性产生未知的后果。我们模拟了反映现场研究典型条件的数据集。纵向数据是根据具有不同自相关强度的生境选择的几个参数生成的,其中一些个体的观察值比其他个体更多。然后,我们评估了聚类数量的变化如何影响方差估计量的有效性。仿真显示,30个聚类足以获得参数估计方差的无偏且相对精确的估计。使用破坏性抽样来增加独立聚类的数量可以成功消除统计偏差,但前提是观察结果在时间上是自相关的,并且个体间异质性的强度很弱。 GEE还为不同数量的不平衡数据集提供了可靠的方差估计。我们的模拟表明,应通过在追踪至少30只动物时将每个个体分配到一个群集中,或通过使用破坏性抽样进行较少的个体在选择和时间自相关观察中具有中等行为可塑性的研究来估计GEE。这些模拟为构建可靠的栖息地选择和移动模型提供了有价值的信息,从而使统计推断具有鲁棒性,而不会删除过多的生态信息。

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