Unprecedented heat wave in December 2015 and potential for winter glacier ablation in the eastern Alps

摘要

We document the occurrence in December 2015 of unprecedented high monthly mean temperatures in the observational record of mountain sites in the eastern Alps. For the first time in the last 150 years mean December temperature exceeded 0 °C at elevations between 2100 and 2500 m, with December mean anomalies exceeding 6.5 °C with respect to the 1971–2000 mean. Along with the absence of snow cover, such temperatures might have lead to unprecedented winter ablation of glaciers in this elevation range. Smaller temperature anomalies occurred in surrounding low elevation sites, highlighting the key role of topography in this event. Specifically, strong inversions associated with the very stable synoptic conditions during the month amplified the anomalies at the high elevations of the mountain glacier sites. We analyze the processes underlying this exceptional event and place this anomaly within the context of future warming scenarios over the region.