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A millennium-long reconstruction of damaging hydrological events across Italy

机译:对整个意大利破坏性水文事件进行长达一千年的重建

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摘要

Damaging hydrological events are extreme phenomena with potentially severe impacts on human societies. Here, we present the hitherto longest reconstruction of damaging hydrological events for Italy, and for the whole Mediterranean region, revealing 674 such events over the period 800–2017. For any given year, we established a severity index based on information in historical documentary records, facilitating the transformation of the data into a continuous time-series. Episodes of hydrological extremes disrupted ecosystems during the more severe events by changing landforms. The frequency and severity of damaging hydrological events across Italy were likely influenced by the mode of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), with relatively few events during the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly dominated by a positive phase of the AMV. More frequent and heavier storms prevailed during the cold Little Ice Age, dominated by a more negative phase of the AMV. Since the mid-19th century, a decreasing occurrence of exceptional hydrological events is evident, especially during the most recent decades, but this decrease is not yet unprecedented in the context of the past twelve centuries.
机译:破坏性的水文事件是极端现象,对人类社会可能造成严重影响。在这里,我们介绍了迄今为止意大利和整个地中海地区迄今为止最长的破坏性水文事件重建,揭示了800-2017年期间的674种此类水文事件。对于任何给定的年份,我们都基于历史文献记录中的信息建立了严重性指数,以促进将数据转换为连续的时间序列。在更严重的事件中,水文极端事件通过改变地形来破坏生态系统。意大利各地破坏性水文事件的发生频率和严重程度可能受大西洋多年代际变率(AMV)模式的影响,在中世纪温暖气候异常期间,由AMV的积极阶段主导的事件相对较少。在寒冷的小冰河时代,更频繁,更重的风暴盛行,主要是AMV处于较不利的时期。自19世纪中叶以来,异常水文事件的发生率明显下降,尤其是在最近的几十年中,但是这种下降在过去十二个世纪的背景下还不是前所未有的。

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