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Network Catastrophe: Self-Organized Patterns Reveal both the Instability and the Structure of Complex Networks

机译:网络灾难:自组织模式揭示了复杂网络的不稳定性和结构

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摘要

Critical events in society or biological systems can be understood as large-scale self-emergent phenomena due to deteriorating stability. We often observe peculiar patterns preceding these events, posing a question of—how to interpret the self-organized patterns to know more about the imminent crisis. We start with a very general description — of interacting population giving rise to large-scale emergent behaviors that constitute critical events. Then we pose a key question: is there a quantifiable relation between the network of interactions and the emergent patterns? Our investigation leads to a fundamental understanding to: 1. Detect the system's transition based on the principal mode of the pattern dynamics; 2. Identify its evolving structure based on the observed patterns. The main finding of this study is that while the pattern is distorted by the network of interactions, its principal mode is invariant to the distortion even when the network constantly evolves. Our analysis on real-world markets show common self-organized behavior near the critical transitions, such as housing market collapse and stock market crashes, thus detection of critical events before they are in full effect is possible.
机译:由于稳定性下降,社会或生物系统中的重大事件可以理解为大规模的自发现象。在这些事件发生之前,我们经常观察到特殊的模式,提出了一个问题-如何解释自组织模式以更多地了解即将来临的危机。我们从一个非常笼统的描述开始-相互作用的人群引起构成紧急事件的大规模突发行为。然后,我们提出了一个关键问题:相互作用网络与涌现模式之间是否存在可量化的关系?我们的研究导致对以下方面有基本的了解:1.基于模式动力学的主要模式检测系统的过渡; 2.根据观察到的模式确定其演化结构。这项研究的主要发现是,尽管模式被交互网络扭曲,但其主要模式即使在网络不断发展的情况下也不会变形。我们对现实世界市场的分析表明,在关键转变附近,常见的自组织行为,例如房地产市场崩溃和股票市场崩溃,因此可以在关键事件完全发挥作用之前对其进行检测。

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