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Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover

机译:北极和南极海冰覆盖趋势相反的可能联系

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摘要

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration.
机译:海冰是全球气候系统的重要组成部分,也是气候变化的关键指标。近年来,北极海冰浓度呈下降趋势,而南极海冰浓度呈总体上升趋势。各种研究已经调查了每个区域观察到的趋势的根本原因,但是尚未研究区域趋势之间的可能联系。在这里,我们假设北极和南极海冰浓度的相反趋势可能至少部分地通过太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和大西洋多年代际涛动(AMO)的年代际变化联系在一起。尽管对该假设的评估受到海冰覆盖记录的局限性的限制,但是对观察到的和重新分析的海冰浓度数据的一个短期和两个长期时间序列进行的初步统计分析表明,可能存在假想的联系。对于所有三个数据集,全球海冰浓度变化的主导模式与AMO正相关,与PDO负相关。与PDO和AMO有关的两个波列似乎在两个极地地区产生异常的地表空气温度和低水平的风场,这导致了海冰浓度的相反变化。

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