Design of Phase II cancer trials evaluating survival probabilities

摘要

BackgroundPhase II cancer studies are undertaken to assess the activity of a new drug or a new treatment regimen. Activity is sometimes defined in terms of a survival probability, a binary outcome such as one-year survival that is derived from a time-to-event variable. Phase II studies are usually designed with an interim analysis so they can be stopped if early results are disappointing. Most designs that allow for an interim look are not appropriate for monitoring survival probabilities since many patients will not have enough follow-up by the time of the interim analysis, thus necessitating an inconvenient suspension of accrual while patients are being followed.