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Error and bias in size estimates of whale sharks: implications for understanding demography

机译:鲸鲨尺寸估计的误差和偏差:对了解人口统计学的影响

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摘要

Body size and age at maturity are indicative of the vulnerability of a species to extinction. However, they are both difficult to estimate for large animals that cannot be restrained for measurement. For very large species such as whale sharks, body size is commonly estimated visually, potentially resulting in the addition of errors and bias. Here, we investigate the errors and bias associated with total lengths of whale sharks estimated visually by comparing them with measurements collected using a stereo-video camera system at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. Using linear mixed-effects models, we found that visual lengths were biased towards underestimation with increasing size of the shark. When using the stereo-video camera, the number of larger individuals that were possibly mature (or close to maturity) that were detected increased by approximately 10%. Mean lengths calculated by each method were, however, comparable (5.002 ± 1.194 and 6.128 ± 1.609 m, s.d.), confirming that the population at Ningaloo is mostly composed of immature sharks based on published lengths at maturity. We then collated data sets of total lengths sampled from aggregations of whale sharks worldwide between 1995 and 2013. Except for locations in the East Pacific where large females have been reported, these aggregations also largely consisted of juveniles (mean lengths less than 7 m). Sightings of the largest individuals were limited and occurred mostly prior to 2006. This result highlights the urgent need to locate and quantify the numbers of mature male and female whale sharks in order to ascertain the conservation status and ensure persistence of the species.
机译:物种的大小和成熟时的年龄表明物种易灭绝。然而,对于不能被限制测量的大型动物来说,它们都难以估计。对于非常大的物种,例如鲸鲨,通常通过肉眼估计其体形,这可能会导致错误和偏见。在这里,我们通过与西澳大利亚州Ningaloo Reef的立体视频摄像头系统收集的测量值进行比较,来调查与目视估计的鲸鲨总长度相关的误差和偏差。使用线性混合效应模型,我们发现随着鲨鱼大小的增加,视觉长度会偏向于低估。使用立体声摄像机时,被检测到的可能已经成熟(或接近成熟)的较大个体的数量增加了大约10%。然而,通过每种方法计算出的平均长度是可比较的(5.002±1.194和6.128±1.609μm,s.d。),这证实了宁格鲁的种群主要由不成熟的鲨鱼组成,这是根据成熟时公布的鲨鱼的长度得出的。然后,我们整理了1995年至2013年间从全球鲸鲨聚集中采样的总长度的数据集。除了在东太平洋据报道有大型雌性的地点外,这些聚集也主要由幼鱼组成(平均长度小于7μm)。最大个体的目光有限,而且大多发生在2006年之前。这一结果突出表明,迫切需要确定和量化成年雄性和雌性鲸鲨的数量,以确定保护状况并确保该物种的持久性。

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